Global Installations Slow to 10% Growth in 2025
SolarPower Europe’s Global Market Outlook for Solar Power 2025–2029 forecasts 655 GW of new photovoltaic (PV) capacity additions in 2025—10% above the 597 GW installed in 2024—marking a slowdown from the double-digit growth of prior years. Constraints on land availability, grid-connection bottlenecks, and pockets of market saturation are cited as the primary headwinds, though supportive policy frameworks and ongoing technological improvements are expected to sustain long-term resilience.
Module Price Trends: Stability with Regional Variations
Global Average Pricing
For first-half 2025 shipments, the OPIS benchmark via PV Magazine shows global module prices at $0.085/W (range: $0.082–$0.090/W), up 1.19% quarter-on-quarter, with expectations of steady-to-slightly-rising prices in H2 2025 amid upstream supply controls.
U.S. Spot Market Premium
U.S. delivered-duty-paid (DDP) spot prices for utility-scale TOPCon modules stood at $0.285/W in late Q1 2025. Forward curve data anticipate a modest rise to $0.293/W for Q2 deliveries before easing back to around $0.282/W by year-end, driven by import tariffs and higher logistics costs.
China Forward Cargoes
In China’s forward market, Q2 2025 loading cargoes traded at $0.089/W, while Q3 2025 prices edged down 1.16% to $0.087/W. Q4 2025 and Q1 2026 loading prices softened further to $0.086–$0.085/W, reflecting a mix of domestic demand shifts and new grid-tariff policies.
What This Means for Stakeholders
-
Procurement Timing: With global prices oscillating around $0.085/W, locking in contracts now can hedge against potential price upticks in late 2025.
-
Regional Strategy: U.S. developers face a persistent price premium due to tariffs—sourcing strategies should balance local manufacturing incentives with import costs.
-
Market Outlook: As global additions normalize to low-double-digit growth, module manufacturers will navigate margin pressure; consolidation and efficiency gains will be key to maintaining profitability.
