On April 2, 2025 (Eastern Time), the White House issued Executive Order 14257 under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, imposing a baseline tariff of 10% on imports from most countries effective April 5. Beginning April 9, higher “reciprocal tariffs” were slated to be applied against nations running significant trade deficits with the U.S.
However, on April 9 (Eastern Time), President Trump announced that—apart from China, which may continue to face elevated reciprocal duties—those higher duties for all other countries will be suspended for 90 days, during which the standard 10% tariff will be reinstated. As of this writing, no formal amendment to the original executive order has been released, and the tariff status after the 90-day window remains unclear. Accordingly, this analysis proceeds based on the initially announced reciprocal rates.
Focusing on the leading photovoltaic (PV) manufacturing countries and using the preliminary duty schedule, we integrate existing anti-dumping and countervailing measures to assess potential impacts. Note:
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Both polysilicon feedstock and solar wafers are exempt from these base or reciprocal tariffs; the table below applies only to finished cells and modules destined for the U.S.
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Country of origin for reciprocal duties is determined by cell production. For example, modules using Indonesian cells but assembled in Vietnam are treated as Indonesian origin for tariff purposes, pending final U.S. Customs & Border Protection rulings.
Turkey, Indonesia, and India enjoy the lowest duties, preserving cost competitiveness for U.S. imports. In practice, however, India and Turkey lack sufficient domestic cell capacity—just as the U.S. itself does—so short-term demand will likely rely on Indonesia and Laos, where cell output is more robust. Indonesia’s combination of scale and low reciprocal rate makes its products especially competitive.
Chinese modules, even with higher combined duties, retain price advantages due to low manufacturing costs. Yet lingering anti-dumping duties (up to 238.95% for entities designated “Chinese origin” in future investigations) have deterred direct exports to the U.S., limiting immediate fallout from any new hikes.
PV Supply Chain Outlook
The core challenge for the U.S. market is a pronounced cell-capacity deficit. In Q1 2025, U.S. module capacity reached 50.5 GW, but cell output was only 2.3 GW—leaving roughly a 37 GW shortfall once thin-film segments are excluded. Imports from Indonesia and Laos will remain vital; should those sources prove insufficient, secondary supply may come from India or Malaysia (subject to anti-dumping rates). Overall, higher tariffs will drive up project costs and likely force suppliers to raise prices.
Ongoing negotiations over reciprocal tariffs will shape manufacturers’ global footprints. To hedge against elevated duties, PV producers may diversify by adding or shifting capacity to lower-tariff regions in the Middle East or Africa. Ultimately, success will hinge on building multi-regional sales channels and strong brand equity.